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ii Abstract The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory operates two AXYS WindSentinel lidar buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Wind Energy Technologies Office. The purpose of these buoys is to collect hub-height winds and supporting meteorological and oceanographic information to facilitate the development of wind energy in the U.S. waters. The first deployment for one buoy was off the coast of Virginia from December 2014 to May 2016, and the first deployment for the other buoy was off the coast of New Jersey from November 2015 until February 2017. This report describes recent analysis of data collected during these first two deployments. Specifically, we compare hub-height wind speed estimates using Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory to the lidar measurements and examine how those errors are affected by wind direction, atmospheric stability, wind-wave direction differences, and various measures of the wave state. The comparisons are done using standard similarity functions based on Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory; including the Businger-Dyer, the Beljaars and Holtslag, and the Vickers and Mahrt similarity functions. All models produced large errors over the range of atmospheric stabilities that were observed, with the largest errors occurring for stable flows. The Vickers and Mahrt function resulted in the largest overall bias and standard deviation, while Beljaars and Holtslag function gave the smallest bias and standard deviation due to its better performance under stable conditions. The models performed best under unstable conditions, but even in this regime there was a consistent overestimation of the wind speed of between roughly 0 to 1 ms-1 compared to the lidar measurements. We identified specific metocean conditions (i.e., stability and wind and wave directions) at each of the deployment locations that led to large errors in Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory predictions. Finally, a coupled ocean–atmosphere model framework was investigated to simulate large errors in weather research forecasting.

A Study on Modeled Wind Speed Errors Using the U.S. Department of Energy Buoys