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This study developed a probabilistic methodology for assessment of the reliability and security of electrical energy distribution networks. This included consideration of the future grid system, which will rely heavily on the existing digitally based communication infrastructure for monitoring and protection. Event tree and fault tree methods were utilized. The approach extensively modeled the types of faults that a grid could potentially experience, the response of the grid, and the specific design of the protection schemes. We demonstrated the methods by applying it to a small subsection of a hypothetical grid based on an existing electrical grid system of a metropolitan area. The results showed that for a typical design that relies on communication network for protection, the communication network reliability could contribute significantly to the frequency of loss of electrical power. The reliability of the communication network could become a more important contributor to the electrical grid reliability as the utilization of the communication network significantly increases in the near future to support "smart" transmission and/or distributed generation.

ELECTRICAL SUBSTATION RELIABILITY EVALUATION WITH EMPHASIS ON EVOLVING INTERDEPENDENCE ON COMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE.