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Performance assessment modeling for High Level Waste (HLW) disposal incorporates three different types of uncertainty. These include data and parameter uncertainty, modeling uncertainty (which includes conceptual, mathematical, and numerical), and uncertainty associated with predicting the future state of the system. In this study, the potential impact of conceptual model uncertainty on the estimated performance of a hypothetical high-level radioactive waste disposal site in unsaturated, fractured tuff has been assessed for a given group of conceptual models. This was accomplished by taking a series of six, one-dimensional conceptual models, which differed only by the fundamental assumptions used to develop them, and conducting ground-water flow and radionuclide transport simulations. Complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) representing integrated radionuclide release to the water table indicate that differences in the basic assumptions used to develop conceptual models can have a significant impact on the estimated performance of the site. Because each of the conceptual models employed the same mathematical and numerical models, contained the same data and parameter values and ranges, and did not consider the possible future states of the system, changes in the CCDF could be attributed primarily to differences in conceptual modeling assumptions. Studies such as this one could help prioritize site characterization activities by identifying critical and uncertain assumptions used in model development, thereby providing guidance as to where reduction of uncertainty is most important

An investigation of the impact of conceptual model uncertainty on the estimated performance of a hypothetical high-level nuclear waste repository site in unsaturated, fractured tuff; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project