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In this study we use a state-of-the-art planning model for the electric power system - the SWITCH model - to investigate the evolution of the power systems of California and western North America from present-day to 2050 in the context of deep decarbonization of the economy. We find drastic power system carbon emission reductions to be feasible by 2050 under a wide range of possible futures. The average cost of power in 2050 is found to range between $149/MWh and $232/MWh across scenarios, a 21 to 88 % increase relative to a business-as-usual scenario, and a 38 to 115 % increase relative to the present-day cost of power. In order to rapidly decarbonize, the power system undergoes sweeping change. Between present-day and 2030, the evolution of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) power system is dominated by the implementation of aggressive energy efficiency measures, the installation of renewable energy and gas-fired generation facilities, and the retirement of coal-fired generation. In the 2040 time frame, deployment of wind, solar, and geothermal power reduce power system emissions by displacing gas-fired generation. In the 2050 time frame this deployment trend continues for wind and solar, but is accompanied by large amounts of new storage and long-distance, high-voltage transmission capacity. In stark contrast to present-day operation, electricity storage is used primarily to move solar energy from the daytime into the night in order to charge electric vehicles and meet demand from electrified heating. Transmission capacity over the California border is increased by 40 - 220 % by 2050, implying that transmission siting, permitting, and regional cooperation will become increasingly important over time. California remains a net electricity importer in all scenarios investigated. Wind and solar power are key elements in power system decarbonization, providing 37 - 56 % and 17 - 32 % of energy generated respectively across WECC in 2050 if no new nuclear capacity is built. In an effort to integrate wind and solar resources, the amount of installed gas capacity remains relatively constant between present-day and 2050, though carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is installed on some gas plants by 2050. The fleet-wide average capacity factor of non-CCS gas generation drops steeply between 2030 and 2050, reaching only 5 - 16 % in 2050 for scenarios that meet the 86 % emission reduction target.

Scenarios for Deep Carbon Emission Reductions from Electricity by 2050 in Western North America using the Switch Electric Power Sector Planning Model: California's Carbon Challenge Phase II, Volume II