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Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of any investigation of the behavior of a complex, multi-physics system. UQ is the complete study of the accuracy, reliability, and errors in deriving scientific inferences. UQ impacts both the experimental and modeling (analytical theory and numerical simulation) approaches to studying the behavior of complex systems. UQ is essential in quantifying the nature of model and code verification and validation. Although UQ is an evolving and expanding research area, there is much experience and many mature tools already in existence. Thus, a new undertaking like the Fusion Simulation Project, with goals to develop a suite of predictive computer models for complex magnetic fusion plasma behavior and to validate this suite against experimental observations, will need to make thorough use of existing UQ methodologies and motivate the development of new techniques. This document presents an overview of UQ including some examples of successful practices and some recommendations for defining UQ practices in the Fusion Simulation Project.

Uncertainty Quantification in the Fusion Simulation Project Verification and Validation Activity