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The existing fleet of nuclear power plants is in the process of extending its lifetime and increasing the power generated. In order to evaluate the impact of these two factors on the safety of the plant, the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) project aims to provide insight to decision makers through a series of simulations of the plant dynamics for different initial conditions (e.g., probabilistic analysis and uncertainty quantification). This report focuses, in particular, on the impact of power uprate on the safety of a boiled water reactor system. The case study considered is a loss of off-site power followed by the loss of diesel generators, i.e., a station black out (SBO) event. Analysis is performed by using a thermo-hydraulic code, i.e. RELAP-5, and a stochastic analysis tool currently under development at INL, i.e. RAVEN. Starting from the event tree models contained in SAPHIRE, we built the input file for RELAP-5 that models in great detail system dynamics under SBO conditions. We also interfaced RAVEN with RELAP-5 so that it would be possible to run multiple RELAP-5 simulation runs by changing specific keywords of the input file. We both employed classical statistical tools, i.e. Monte-Carlo, and more advanced machine learning based algorithms to perform uncertainty quantification in order to quantify changes in system performance and limitations as a consequence of power uprate. We also employed advanced data analysis and visualization tools that helped us to correlate simulation outcome such as maximum core temperature with a set of input uncertain parameters. Results obtained gave a detailed overview of the issues associated to power uprate for a SBO accident scenario. We were able to quantify how timing of safety related events were impacted by a higher reactor core power. Such insights can provide useful material to the decision makers to perform risk-infomed safety margins management

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Support and Modeling for the Boiling Water Reactor Station Black Out Case Study Using RELAP and RAVEN