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This progress report documents the Sun City modeling approach, intended to be an analytic tool for city planners. It is midway in development and this report provides the design basis to provide the mathematics for policy considerations applied to PV market acceleration. It assesses the effects on market diffusion for nine commonly used policies: cash incentives, third party financing, group purchase programs, community solar projects, feed-in-tariffs, property assessed clean energy financing, low interest loans, property and sales tax incentives, and streamlined PV permitting processes. Generic forms of all of these policies are modeled in a system dynamics PowerSim Studio model using a concept called the photovoltaic favorability (PVF). PVF is equal to the difference between the ratio of conventional electricity costs to levelized electricity costs of a PV system and four barrier ratios. The barriers are present to model inhibiting influences on human decisions and financial limitations. They include down payment costs, month to month payment costs of financing, time to net profit, and time to lower payments. Each barrier term is divided by a tolerance term which represents the potential that consumers of the region can typically invest. PVF is quantified across a range of limited budget financing and cash incentives options which are then consumed from greatest PVF to least PVF. Finding the overall PVF requires iteration on a variation of the Bass diffusion model. This iterative scheme is tied in a feed-back loop to local and national PV learning curves which in turn quantify reductions in the cost of PV for future time steps based on user input learning rates. The modeling has been wrapped into a graphical user interface which will allow city planners to easily compare and demonstrate multiple scenarios. Data for the DOE sponsored Solar America Cities and for Albuquerque, New Mexico has been entered into the model in order to minimize data collection efforts by city planners.

Sun City progress report : policy effects on photovoltaic adoption for city planning.