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Many complex systems of importance to the U.S. Department of Energy consist of networks of discrete components. Examples are cyber networks, such as the internet and local area networks over which nearly all DOE scientific, technical and administrative data must travel, the electric power grid, social networks whose behavior can drive energy demand, and biological networks such as genetic regulatory networks and metabolic networks. In spite of the importance of these complex networked systems to all aspects of DOE's operations, the scientific basis for understanding these systems lags seriously behind the strong foundations that exist for the 'physically-based' systems usually associated with DOE research programs that focus on such areas as climate modeling, fusion energy, high-energy and nuclear physics, nano-science, combustion, and astrophysics. DOE has a clear opportunity to develop a similarly strong scientific basis for understanding the structure and dynamics of networked systems by supporting a strong basic research program in this area. Such knowledge will provide a broad basis for, e.g., understanding and quantifying the efficacy of new security approaches for computer networks, improving the design of computer or communication networks to be more robust against failures or attacks, detecting potential catastrophic failure on the power grid and preventing or mitigating its effects, understanding how populations will respond to the availability of new energy sources or changes in energy policy, and detecting subtle vulnerabilities in large software systems to intentional attack. This white paper outlines plans for an aggressive new research program designed to accelerate the advancement of the scientific basis for complex networked systems of importance to the DOE. It will focus principally on four research areas: (1) understanding network structure, (2) understanding network dynamics, (3) predictive modeling and simulation for complex networked systems, and (4) design, situational awareness and control of complex networks. The program elements consist of a group of Complex Networked Systems Research Institutes (CNSRI), tightly coupled to an associated individual-investigator-based Complex Networked Systems Basic Research (CNSBR) program. The CNSRI's will be principally located at the DOE National Laboratories and are responsible for identifying research priorities, developing and maintaining a networked systems modeling and simulation software infrastructure, operating summer schools, workshops and conferences and coordinating with the CNSBR individual investigators. The CNSBR individual investigator projects will focus on specific challenges for networked systems. Relevancy of CNSBR research to DOE needs will be assured through the strong coupling provided between the CNSBR grants and the CNSRI's

Modeling, Simulation and Analysis of Complex Networked Systems: A Program Plan for DOE Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research