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From three-member ensemble projections under the climatic change scenario, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, regional impacts of global warming on near-surface permafrost are investigated for six analysis regions in the circum-arctic and highlands: Alaska, Alaskan Arctic, Canadian Arctic, Eastern Siberia, Russian Arctic, and Tibetan Plateau, using the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). The projected results for the 21st century under the A1B scenario indicated that the ice volume in the deepest model soil layer at about 3 m depth, which had been completely frozen during the 1870s in the historical simulation, begins to melt abruptly at around 2000 in each region. Particularly in Alaska and Eastern Siberia which are more advanced than the other regions in the thawing of permafrost, more than 50% of the ice volume disappears by 2030. From a viewpoint of regional vulnerability, the Alaskan Arctic at around 2020 may suffer the most severe damage as it has the highest thawing rate. Owing to thawing of the frozen soil, subsurface runoff increases by 215.4% and soil moisture decreases by -19.3% in Eastern Siberia for the 1990s to the 2090s.

Permafrost Thawing in Circum-Arctic and Highlands under Climatic Change Scenario Projected by Community Climate System Model (CCSM3)