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We investigated extremely heavy precipitation that occurred around the Kinugawa River, Japan, in September 2015, and the probability of extreme precipitation occurrence, using data from a large ensemble forecast of more than 1,000 members that were dynamically downscaled to 1.6 km horizontal grid spacing. The observed event was statistically rare among simulated cases and the 3-day accumulated precipitation around the target area was equivalent to the 95th percentile among all simulated ensemble members. Our results show that this extreme precipitation event occurred under specific conditions: two coexisting typhoons at close proximity that produced a high atmospheric instability, and water vapor transported from the Pacific Ocean. We also assessed the probability of extreme precipitation in mountainous areas other than the Kinugawa River case. Heavy precipitation also occurred southwest of the Kinugawa River region due to two typhoons, similar to the Kinugawa River case. The tracks of these typhoons shifted marginally; however, there was a difference in the water vapor supplied to the area, causing heavy precipitation. The large-ensemble downscaled data used in this study hence enabled us to evaluate the occurrence probability of a torrential rainfall event that was rarely observed, which may contribute to updating a disaster-mitigating plan for possible similar disasters in future. Corresponding author: Mikiko Fujita, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi Kanazawaku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan E-mail: fmiki@jamstec.go.jp J-stage Advance Published Date: 17 December 2018 Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Vol. 97, No. 2 388

Analyses of Extreme Precipitation Associated with the Kinugawa River Flood in September 2015 Using a Large Ensemble Downscaling Experiment