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Recent high resolution models consistently show that the global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency will decrease in the future due to global warming, while there is a large uncertainty in the projected regional TC frequency changes (Knutson et al. 2010). The mechanism of the changes in global and regional TC frequency is not yet fully understood, although some hypotheses are proposed. Sugi et al. (2002) suggested that the reduction of global TC frequency is closely related to a weakening of tropical circulation (upward mass flux). Emanuel et al. (2008) suggested that the reduction of global TC frequency is closely related to an increase in mid-troposphere saturation deficit.

On the Mechanism of Tropical Cyclone Frequency Changes Due to Global Warming