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Book DOI: 10.21467/abstracts.93 determination of the frequency of occurrence of accidents in water facilities; assessment and analysis of the consequences of accidents; generalization of risk assessments and their analysis. To determine the frequency of occurrence of accidents in water facilities, statistical data on accidents and expert estimates are used. In world practice, according to the recommendations of ICOLD (International Commission on Large Dams), it is recommended to assess the risk in the form of a mathematical expectation of the consequences of the implementation of an undesirable event (as the product of the probability of a negative event and the mathematical expectation of the magnitude of its consequences) or in the form of a certain combination (scenario) of implementation probabilities and associated with him the consequences. Thus, the risk depends on the probability of a building accident and on its consequences and often represents a significant amount, even if the probability of an event is very small. The traditional approach to solving the problem of compliance of water facilities with safety requirements is based mainly on the deterministic method of limit states (or limit equilibrium), which reduces, in principle, to a comparison of the calculated (deterministic) indicators with their acceptable (criteria) values. Estimated indicators are refined using systems of safety factors. Accident risk characterizes a more complete hazard statement, including the probability of a hazardous event and an assessment of the negative consequences associated with it. The reliability of hydraulic structures means the fulfillment of functional (technological) requirements by them during the standard service life. The development of risk reduction recommendations is the final step in risk analysis. The recommendations provide reasonable measures to minimize risk, which are based on the results of risk assessments and analysis. Crucial is the overall assessment of the effectiveness and reliability of measures affecting the risk, as well as the size of the costs of their implementation. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the proposed risk reduction measures is as follows: with the given funds, it is necessary to ensure the maximum risk reduction of the operated water facilities or to ensure that the risk is reduced to an acceptable level at the lowest cost. To determine the importance and priority of the implementation of measures to minimize the risk of accidents in water facilities, it is necessary to determine “the effectiveness-cost” indicator and evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed measures according to the criteria of diagnostic safety indicators that determine the reliability of the water facilities.

Risk Assessment and Analysis of Accidents of Water Facilities