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We examine the impact of market volatility and increased fiscal take on risk in strategic natural resource projects. An increase in 2006 UK oilfield taxation is used as a natural experiment for assessing the impact of a fiscal increase on oilfield projects comprising 73% of UK reserves. Stochastic cash flow at risk models combine market volatility and tax-take at the oilfield level to extend earlier North Sea studies. We demonstrate that a 10% Secondary tax increase in a composite UKCS fiscal system with a-priori nonlinearity directly increases overall cost structures, resulting in a 14% decrease in project values, and significantly, a 67% risk increase for UK Oilfields. Risk effects are asymmetrical across the size varying sample, marginal prospects are most affected.

The Impact of Tax Shocks and Oil Price Volatility on Risk - A Study of North Sea Oilfield Projects