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"Ergebnisse empirischer Forschung zum Thema regierungspolitischer undBudgetzyklen unterstützen eher die These, dass es Wahlzyklen in Bezug aufpolitische Entscheidungen als in Bezug auf makroökonomische Effekte gibt.Dennoch gibt es auch für Politikzyklen in Vor-Wahl-Perioden keine eindeutigeBestätigung. In der vorliegenden Veröffentlichung belegen wir neuereArgumente, die zeigen, dass die Begründung hierfür in der Missachtung despolitischen, ökonomischen und institutionellen Kontextes liegt, in dem Politikerpolitische Entscheidungen treffen. Wir belegen insbesondere, dass der Gradder politischen Zersplitterung der Regierung sowohl den Bedarf nach als auchdie Möglichkeit zu opportunistischen Politikzyklen beeinflusst. Eine Analyse vonDaten zur kommunalen Verschuldung von 296 flämischen Gemeinden liefert dieempirische Untermauerung für diese Behauptung." (Autorenreferat)"Empirical research on Political Business (and Budget) Cycles is moresupportive for electoral cycles in policies than in macro-economic outcomes.But even pre-electoral policy cycles receive no unanimous confirmation. In thepresent paper, we give credence to recent arguments that this may be due tothe disregard for the political, economic and institutional context in whichpoliticians make policy decisions. Specifically, we argue that the level of politicalfragmentation of the government affects both the need for and possibility toengage in opportunistic policy cycles. An analysis of local public debt data for296 Flemish municipalities provides empirical support for this contention.Empirical research on Political Business (and Budget) Cycles is more supportive for electoral cycles in policies than in macro-economic outcomes. But even pre-electoral policy cycles receive no unanimous confirmation. In the present paper, we give credence to recent arguments that this may be due tothe disregard for the political, economic and institutional context in whichpoliticians make policy decisions. Specifically, we argue that the level of politicalfragmentation of the government affects both the need for and possibility toengage in opportunistic policy cycles. An analysis of local public debt data for296 Flemish municipalities provides empirical support for this contention." (author's abstract

Government Weakness and Electoral Cycles in Local Public Debt: Evidence from Flemish Municipalities