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Under the world dollar standard, a discrete appreciation by a dollar creditor country of the UnitedStates, such as China or Japan, has no predictable effect on its trade surplus. Currency appreciationby the creditor country will slow its economic growth and eventually cause deflation but cannotcompensate for a saving-investment imbalance in the United States. Under a fixed exchange rate,however, differential adjustment in the rate of growth of money wages will more accurately reflectinternational differences in productivity growth. International competitiveness will be better balancedbetween high-growth and low-growth economies, as between Japan and the U.S. from 1950 to1971 and China and the U.S. from 1994 to 2005, when the peripheral country’s dollar exchangerate is fixed so that its wage growth better reflects its higher productivity growth. The qualified casefor China moving toward greater flexibility in the form of a very narrow band for the yuan/dollarexchange rate, as a way of decentralizing foreign exchange transacting, is discussed.

Exchange Rate or Wage Changes in International Adjustment? Japan and China Versus the United States