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Opinion polling procedures allow for reasonable inferences about attitude changes. We examined this contention using surveys about the nomination of Clarence Thomas. In this situation, prior theory allowed us to predict the direction of changes, surveys had been conducted by a number of organizations, and substantial information was available about the methodology used in the surveys. As a result we concluded that the deteriorating opinions of Thomas were real. Polls suggest that there was a change of opinions about Clarence Thomas in the year following the confirmation hearings that put him on the Supreme Court (Rucinski 1993). In 15 polls conducted in 1991, an average of 51% of the respondents were pro-Thomas. In contrast, only 37% of the respondents were pro-Thomas in three 1992 surveys. 1

How Serious are Methodological Issues in Surveys? A Reexamination of the Clarence Thomas Polls