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We develop a positive theory of the adoption of child-labor regulation. There are two key mechanisms at work in our model. First, parental decisions on family size interact with their preferences for child-labor regulation. Second, the supply of child labor affects skilled and unskilled wages. If policies are determined by majority voting, multiple steady states with different child-labor policies can ex- ist. The model is consistent with international evidence on the incidence of child labor. In particular, it predicts a positive correlation between child labor, fertil- ity, and inequality across countries of similar income per capita. The model also predicts that the political support for regulation should increase if a rising skill premium induces parents to choose smaller families. A calibration of the model shows that it can replicate features of the history of the U.K. in the 19th Century, when regulations were introduced after a period of rising wage inequality, and coincided with rapidly declining fertility and rising educational levels.

Voting with Your Children: A Positive Analysis of Child Labor Laws