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This paper builds on input-output and trade analysis to propose a new method to derive plausible scenarios in the case of trade conflicts that could disrupt international supply chains. It measures three spill-over effects affecting third countries: trade deviation, trade destruction and trade deflection. It can also be used to generate “in silico? a large data set of numerical “observations? of the mode of insertion of countries and industries in the international market that can be further analysed using appropriate exploratory statistical techniques. The paper counts with three parts, besides introduction and conclusion. The first one is theoretical, starting with a formal model of inter-industry trade before describing the empirical model. The second part is didactic, implementing step-by-step applying the method to a small six-countries/three-industries model.The third part applies the methodology to the bilateral trade conflict that arose between China and the USA in 2018. Applying exploratory data statistical analysis to the results obtained by simulating a large series of bilateral shocks, the paper shows how the method can also be used for generating analytical data and identify modes of insertion in the global economy. The R program is presented in annex.

Extraction-cum-Substitution: A KISS Approach to Mapping the Impacts of Bilateral Trade Conflicts