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Monetary policy is generally held to affect the economy in complex and less than fully understood ways. It is widely agreed though that in open economies with flexible exchange rates these effects arise mainly through two channels of transmission: changes in the level of interest rates and the exchange rate. Performance measures for monetary policy too remain controversial. In principle, an assessment of central bank performance may either focus on how skillfully policies are executed and communicated with the view of achieving their stated goals. Or assessment may focus on the extent to which those stated goals were actually achieved. The ECB for its own part has from the beginning declared that it wishes its own performance to be judged in terms of the medium-term price developments in Euroland only (Duisenberg 1999, Issing 1998), that is, in terms of its primary objective of price stability, defined by the ECB as a year-on-year increase in the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) of "less than 2" over "the medium term". (3) This standard of (ex post) evaluation raises a number of difficulties though.

Easy Money through the Back Door: The Markets vs. the ECB