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We analyze the fate of 110 Italian banks that experienced abrupt drops in profitability, from which about 1/3 recover. Recovery depends primarily on post-shock adjustments made by the banks, particularly to their loan portfolios. Matched bank-borrower data shows that recovering banks are significantly more aggressive in managing their riskiest clients. The risk management differences are consistent with some banks cutting credit to very riskiest clients while others appear to be gambling for reclamation by continuing to extend credit to high risk borrowers.

Which Banks Recover from Large Adverse Shocks?