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Time series of US patents per million inhabitants show long waves that partially coincide with Kondratieff cycles. This wave structure can be attributed to different knowledge-generating paradigms that drive innovation systems thereof. The changes in the slopes between the waves indicate different efficiencies in the knowledge generation. Since knowledge-generating systems are associated with innovation systems, the efficiency can be modelled in terms of interactions among dimensions (for example, in terms of university-industry-government relations). The model predicts an efficiency increase with an increasing number of dimensions due to the effects of self-organisation among them. The time spans of the knowledge-generating cycles can also be analysed in terms of Fibonacci numbers and successive cycles are expected to exhibit shorter life cycles than previous ones. This perspective enables us to forecast expected dates of future paradigm changes.

Knowledge-Generating Efficiency in Innovation Systems: The Relation between Structural and Temporal Effects