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Methods measuring capital flight unfortunately yield a too wide band of estimates. A striking example is provided by estimates of capital flight from Russia. This study introduces unit-values analysis as a new and, hopefully, more robust tool in order to estimate trade-related capital flight. Trade-related capital flight prevails when capital account convertibility is strongly limited, as in the case of Russia. Unit values analysis aims at detecting the underpricing of exports and the overpricing of imports as the major flight channel. Using a multilateral translog price index we test for systematic deviations in EU export prices to Russia compared with exports to Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. As benchmark we selected exports to France. We limit our calculations to six-digit and four-digit chapters in 70–89 of the Combined Nomenclature (manufactured goods). We find no systematic deviation in calculated prices and conclude that underpricing of EU exports to Russia (Russian imports from EU) does not play a dominant role for capital flight through manufactured goods. We extended the test to EU imports of oil and oil products (chapter 27) and found evidence for the underpricing of Russian deliveries, mainly in the chapter 2710 (petroleum oil, not crude).

The Use of Unit Values in Estimating Trade-Related Capital Flight: The Case of CEE Countries with Special Focus on Russia