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The international press has recently reported on the widely-held view in thefinancial markets that the movement of the Belgian industrial confidence indicator mightprecede the euro area business cycles. The initial purpose of this paper is to assesswhether this market perception is more than a simple optical illusion, resulting from theinspection of graphical representations of the data. For that, explicitly formalised methodsare used to identify the timing of turning points in the...

The Belgian Industrial Confidence Indicator: Leading Indicator of Economic Activity in the Euro Area?