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This paper presents a Schumpeterian quality-ladder model incorporating the impact of new General Purpose Technologies (GPT's). GPT's are breakthrough technologies with a wide range of applications, opening up new innovational complementarities. In contrast to most existing models which focus on the events after the arrival of a new GPT, the model developed in this paper focuses on the events before the arrival if R&D flrms know the point of time and the technological impact of this drastic innovation. In this framework we can show, that the economy goes through three main phases before the arrival of a new GPT: First, the economy is in its old steady state. Second, there is an increase in R&D activities and growth going even beyond the old steady state levels. Finally, immediately before the arrival of the new GPT, there is a large slump in R&D activities using the old GPT before the economy reaches the new steady steady with a higher growth rate than in the old steady state. This sequence of events both flts stylized facts in economic history and presents a sensible extension to models solely focusing on the time-frame after the arrival of a new GPT.

The Calm Before the Storm? Anticipating The Arrival of General Purpose Technologies