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This paper seeks to determine whether institutional changes implemented by federal governments have created incentives and influenced the decision of state governments to undertake fiscal adjustments. Furthermore, it examines how these changes contributed to the success or failure of said adjustments. After evaluating and confirming the independence of irrelevant alternatives, a Multinomial Logit model was used to estimate how these changes affected choices (using 'no adjustments' as the base outcome at all times). We found, as international literature has suggested, that changes to budget institutions do affect fiscal results, and we noted that impacts depend on the rigidity of the budget rule under analysis. In addition, in the case of Brazil, institutional changes noticeably created previously nonexistent incentives for state governments to make fiscal adjustments.

Institutional Changes, Incentive Schemes and the Decision to Undertake Fiscal Adjustments