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Foreign trade is an important channel for a country to participate in international competition and cooperation. Its development degree can directly influence quality and speed of economic development. Based on the principal component model, this paper extracts critical factors influencing import and export trade. A simulation analysis is conducted of nine influencing factors of import and export trade. 85% of the cumulative contribution rate of principal components is adopted as the benchmark. Three comprehensive indexes influencing import and export are extracted, including the internal economic environment comprehensive index, the indirect function comprehensive index and the external economic environment comprehensive index. Besides, simulation analysis results show that the internal economic environment comprehensive is the one having the greatest influence on import and export trade. In other words, GDP and fixed capital investment index are core factors influencing import and export trade. Therefore, to maintain stability and rapid development of import and export trade, it is necessary to further develop the national economy, fully introduce and utilize foreign investments, expand fixed asset investments and increase savings surplus of urban-rural residents. On the other hand, foreign exchange reserve can be properly increased and import tariff can be reduced to enhance import and export trade development.

Simulation of Indexes Influencing Import and Export Trade Based On the Principal Component Model