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A simulation model for determining flower bud phenological stages and fruit growth as a function of daily maximum and minimum temperatures was developed for `Montmorency' sour cherry ( Prunus cerasus  L.). The models were developed and tested with observations collected in the three major sour cherry production areas in Michigan located in northwestern, western central, and southwestern sections of the lower peninsula. Observations of flower bud phenology and fruit diameter were collected at 3- to 7-day intervals, in spurs and terminal shoots across multiple years. Nonlinear equations using accumulation of growing degree-days (base 4 °C) as an independent variable were fitted to observed flower bud phenological stages and fruit diameter, expressed as percentage of final fruit diameter. Simulated bud phenology stages were in agreement with observed data. Mean differences of simulated vs. observed dates of early phenological stages in the three production areas were between 4 and 1 days for side green and near 0 days for tight cluster, while during later stages (e.g., first bloom and full bloom) mean differences ranged from -2 to 0 days. Means differences of predicted fruit diameter were in the range of 0 to -3 days. Needing only daily temperature data, these simulation models have potential applicability in improving the timing and efficiency of management decisions related to crop phenology, such as pest control, fertilization, and irrigation.

Phenological Models of Flower Bud Stages and Fruit Growth of `Montmorency' Sour Cherry Based on Growing Degree-day Accumulation