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A multiple regression model ( R  2  = 0.945) was developed from historical data, 1971-92, to predict pecan [ Carya illinoensis  (Wangenh.) C. Koch] production in an arid climate at high elevations. Dependent variables were year of production as a measure of production trend, number of degrees below 0.6°C following budbreak as a measure of late spring freeze injury, and number of degrees below 0.6°C preceding nut maturity as a measure of early fall freeze injury. Year of production was the dominant factor influencing production. Freezing temperature following budbreak had about two times more effect on production than freezing temperature preceding nut maturity. Pecan production under arid conditions at high elevations depends on fewer variables (three) than previously shown for humid conditions (eight variables).

A Model for Predicting Pecan Production under Arid Conditions at High Elevations