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A model for the epidemiology of noninfectious bud-failure (Fenton, et al., 1988) predicts that BF-potcntial is universally present within specific almond cultivars with variation existing in the rate and pattern of development of BF phenotypes. Orchard surveys of Carmel in 1990 and 1991 involving four nursery sources showed a trend of 2 per cent of affected trees after one year in the orchard, increasing to 4 per cent in the second, with prospects for gradual increase with time. All four sources produced some BF trees with significant differences among sources. A study has been started to identify the source and pattern of BF-potential within the entire Carmel cultivar. It has two parts. A pedigree analysis of propagation sources from eleven commercial nurseries traces their genealogy from the original seedling plant first discovered in 1947. A propagation test of approximately 3000 individual trees representative of the propagation sources of all eleven commercial nurseries has been established. The origin of each progeny tree has been maintained in respect to source, tree, budstick and individual bud location on the stick. Expression of bud-failure symptoms in individual trees will identify the source and pattern of BF-potential within the cultivar.

VERIFICATION OF AN EPIDEMIOLOGY MODEL OF NONINFECTIOUS BUD-FAILURE IN `CARMEL' ALMOND