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The aim of this paper is to present the stochastic flow simulation in saturated porous media, based on a real case of soil and groundwater contamination. The flow simulation is an initial step for the stochastic simulation of contaminant transport and also for the probabilistic human health risk assessment due to ingestion of contaminated groundwater. The stochastic approach consisted in generating hydraulic conductivity random fields for the study area, in order to characterize the uncertainty related to the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity. Two hundred and fifty random field realizations were performed for a 2 km x 5 km rectangular study area, discretized into 2500 cells. The hydraulic conductivity random fields were generated using the Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) method. The spatial structure of the hydraulic conductivity was determined using Geostatistics. From the generated random fields, 200 groundwater flow simulations were performed, resulting both in phreatic level and Darcy’s velocity fields for later use both in simulations of contaminant transport and in definition of risk frequency distributions. Key-words: groundwater flow, groundwater contamination, probabilistic simulation, sequential gaussian simulation.

Avaliação do Risco à Saúde Humana Devido à Ingestão de Água Subterrânea Contaminada: Parte 1- Simulação Estocástica do Fluxo em Meio Poroso Saturado