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A short-term discharge forecast model with 12-day horizon for the Salto Osorio Hydropower Plant basin is presented. The forecast is executed using the SMAP rainfall-discharge model and forecasted rainfall data from the ETA-CPTEC model. The model was developed using spatial interpolation routine to compute the average rainfall either observed or forecasted as well as the propagation and the back-propagation of discharges routines. The propagation times are computed by the cinematic wave technique. Considering the difficulty to assess the model response to different set of parameters, data lack of accuracy and the implementation of necessary simplifications, several versions of the proposed model were analyzed. Ten combinations of the model were studied based in distinct setups of calibration of the parameters and the basin humidity. The results of the versions of the model were then compared to the historical data observed during the 1996-2001 period and their adequacy, assessed. The validation of the model and analysis of the results were performed through visual examination of the hydrographs and statistical analysis. The version B-3 of the model the one that adjusts the superficial and underground reservoir states for the previous day and performs the calibration of the parameters after each simulation presented the best results. Key-words: streamflow forecast model, SMAP, Iguacu River

Previsão de Vazões na Bacia do Rio Iguaçu Baseada no Modelo SMAP e com Incorporação de Informações de Precipitação