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The diversity of historical interactions between Scotland and modern Ireland, especially Northern Ireland, is not in doubt. But the nature and effect of the paramount Scottish influences upon Northern Ireland are disputed. That there are also cognate disputes pertaining to the future of Northern Ireland, and the likely future of relations between Scotland and Northern Ireland, raises fundamental questions as to the purpose of academic study of such historical questions. Even scholarly depictions of the past of Scottish-Irish connections may make implicit assumptions about how the legacy of these connections may impede or nurture certain future developments in both locations. To offer any such depiction may thus be to make political recommendations on some fiercely contested present controversies, such as the likely political future of these constituent nations or regions of the British Isles or north Atlantic archipelago. This paper reviews perceptions of likely futures of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland which historically-informed commentators have advanced, identifying four strands in such analyses. Because none of these perceptions are entirely sound, this essay is partly an illustration of the seductive, and at times delusive, attraction of historical and political parallels and analogies. Significantly however, a common deficiency in such analyses lies in exaggerations of the significance of connections, parallels and affinities between Northern Ireland (or Ireland) and Scotland. Armed thus with a caution as to the errors that such overstatements may produce, this paper offers its own estimates G. K. Peatling IRSS 32 (2007) 33

Pasts, Futures, and Connections between Scotland, Ulster, and Ireland: a critique of some historiographical tendencies