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A numerical, two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Mississippi River, from Thebes, IL, to Tiptonville, TN (128 miles/206 km), was developed using the Adaptive Hydraulics model. The study objective assessed current patterns and flow distributions and their possible impacts on navigation due to Birds Point New Madrid Floodway (BPNMF) operations and the Len Small (LS) levee break. The model was calibrated to stage, discharge, and velocity data for the 2011, 2015–2016, and 2017 floods. The calibrated model was used to run four scenarios, with the BPNMF and the LS breach alternately active/open and inactive/closed. Effects from the LS breach being open are increased river velocities upstream of the breach, decreased velocities from the breach to Thompson Landing, no effects on velocity below the confluence, and cross-current velocities greater than 3.28 ft/s (1.0 m/s) within 1186.8 ft (60 m) of the bankline revetment. Effects from BPNMF operation are increased river velocities above the confluence, decreased velocities from the BPNMF upper inflow crevasse (Upper Fuseplug) to New Madrid, cross-current velocities greater than 1.5 ft/s (0.5 m/s) only near the right bank where flow re-enters the river from the BPNMF lower inflow/outflow crevasse Number 2 (Lower Fuseplug) and St. Johns Bayou.

Mississippi River Adaptive Hydraulics model development and evaluation, Commerce to New Madrid, Missouri, Reach