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The catch pattern of Penaeus indicus H. Milne-Edwards, 1837 in coastal lagoons is influenced by seasonal changes in physicochemical parameters of the lagoon ecosystem. In this study the effects of seasonality, salinity and water temperature of lagoon on P. indicus catch were analysed using Structural Time Series Model (STSM) and ARIMAX (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with explanatory variables) modeling approach using monthly time series catch, salinity and water temperature data of the Chilika Lagoon (a Ramsar site) in India for the period from 2001 to 2015. Results showed a significant (p<0.05) increasing stochastic upward trend and two seasonal cycles for P. indicus catch in the lagoon. Salinity was found to have significant positive influence (p<0.05) and temperature to have insignificant positive influence on P. indicus catch in the lagoon.

Influence of seasonality, salinity and temperature on catch trend of Penaeus indicus H. Milne-Edwards, 1837 in a coastal lagoon, India