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Recent revisions in the measures of the nation's output and capital stock, as well as minor changes in procedures, have altered the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' measures of potential output. The major conclusions of earlier Bank studies, however, have been unaffected by these changes. In particular, the growth of potential output has been sharply reduced by the 1973 to 1974 and 1979 to 1980 energy shocks and subsequent adjustments in the desired capital intensity of production. These effects have been confirmed by the re-estimation of earlier production function coefficients, and, more important, the confirmation of the prior empirical estimates in the latest round of energy price increases. The decline in the growth of potential output since 1973 has, in recent years, been acknowledged by the Council of Economic Advisers, (CEA), but through a trend reduction rather than through sharp temporary declines in 1974 to 1975 and 1979 to 1980 as implied here. Nonetheless, the level of potential output estimated by the CEA in recent years is little different from this Bank's estimate. The slowing in potential output masks a sharper reduction in the growth of productivity in recent years. A detailed analysis of productivity developments shows a markedmore » deterioration in growth relative to past trends. In the measurement of potential output, this deterioration has been partially offset by a more rapid growth of both potential and actual employment. 17 references, 5 figures, 6 tables.« less

Potential Output and the Recent Productivity Decline