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Can you learn from the experience? An empiricist would claim that all human knowledge derives from it. This article analyzes the level of confidence of the forecasts that can be made, related to the construction of houses, based on what happened in similar promotions. It is based on the historical data provided by nine public promotions of officially protected housing (VPO) in J. P. Ruiz, N. Valverde, M. A. López & J. Fuentes 64 Anales de Edificación, Vol. 6, No 1, 63-69 (2020). ISSN: 2444-1309 block, whose projects and construction management have been carried out by the same technical team. The nine promotions, when developed in the field of public official protection, have similar functional, formal and quality characteristics. On the other hand, the construction characteristics of the nine promotions are also comparable: foundation and structure of reinforced concrete, traditional enclosures, flat roofs, installations and materials of similar finishes. The adjudication procedure in all cases has been by open tender. The material execution budget was calculated according to a structure of twenty-four chapters practically identical for the nine promotions, and the control of deadlines and costs was carried out according to the procedures regulated in the “Public Sector Contract Code”. The study consists in the calculation of the average deviations both in costs and in terms of execution contracted. Subsequently, a statistical study of the percentage of the chapters is carried out, both on the project budget and on the settlement budget. Finally, through a polynomial regression, the curve that best fits the production values is obtained. The confidence levels obtained regarding costs, execution times and percentages of chapters offer high deviations that reveal little reliability in the forecasts. On the contrary, the deviations in the values of production at origin with respect to the standard curve of best fit have been much

anales de edificación

Estudio sobre datos históricos de nueve promociones públicas de viviendas de protección oficial = Study on historical data of nine public promotions of officially protected housing