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In this paper, we analyze the changes in the Chilean economy specialization patterns mainly in the period of fastest economic growth and taking into account its relative abundance of productive factors. There are three important findings in this paper that are relevant for natural resources abundant, fast-growing economies. First, we find that even there is a great degree of heterogeneity in output and productivity growth across economic activities, the most dynamic sectors are those more intensive in natural resources. In contrast, labor-intensive sectors are more likely to experience economic contractions. Second, consistent with international evidence, our results suggest that significant changes in Chilean specialization patterns are possible only if the economy increases substantially the investment in both physical and human capital. Third, we do not find evidence that necessarily the tradable sector is an engine of growth. In fact, for a large part of the period under analysis, the non-tradable sector had experienced more rapid output and productivity growth than the tradable sector. This would be consistent with a number of structural reforms (privatization and liberalization of foreign direct investment) that favored expansion in non tradable sectors.// En este articulo se analiza los cambios en la pauta de especializacion de la economia chilena en su periodo de mas rapido crecimiento y tomando en consideracion su abundancia de factores productivos. Existen tres resultados importantes que son de interes para economias que crecen rapidamente y tiene una dotacion de factores similar a la chilena. Primero, aun cuando existe un alto grado de heterogeneidad en la tasa de crecimiento del producto y la productividad de los distintos sectores, se encuentra que los mas dinamicos son los vinculados a recursos naturales. En cambio, sectores comerciables intensivos en mano de obra tienden experimentar contracciones. Segundo, congruente con la evidencia internacional, cambios significativos en el pauta de especializacion de la economia chilena, por ejemplo hacia manufacturas mas elaboradas, solo serian posibles en la medida en que mejore considerablemente la inversion en capital fisico y humano. Tercero, no existe evidencia de que el sector comerciable sea por si mismo el “motor del crecimiento”. En efecto, durante parte importante del periodo el sector no comerciable ha experimentado tasas de crecimiento del producto y la productividad superiores al del comerciable. Esto es congruente con una serie de reformas estructurales (privatizacion, liberacion a la inversion extranjera) que han generado un gran dinamismo del sector servicios.

Pautas de especialización en una economía de rápido crecimiento. El caso de Chile