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Rural unemployment rates persistently have run higher than the national average for many years.  In addition, multiple studies have established that rural underemployment also remains a long-running problem. Unfortunately, it is not yet fully understood how the various factors contributing to rural unemployment and underemployment interact to adversely affect rural labor markets.  The contribution of this paper is to gain insight as to the amount of slack labor force at the county level, focusing on the application to the labor force of rural Pennsylvania. By comparing the actual number of working-age adults presently not in a county’s labor force (using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census) against an estimated number of core unemployable and workforce non-participants (Core NPW) individuals in the county we can generate estimates of the potential up-swing in employment for the regional labor market if participation rates were to become among the best in their national peer group. The study’s methodology and findings provide guidance to policy makers in identifying regions most likely in need of greater assistance as to how to best spend scarce public dollars across various programs aimed at improving local labor markets.

Estimating Core Unemployable And Workforce Non-Participants: A Study Of Rural Pennsylvania's Labor Force