Validation of Arima Model on Production of Papaya in India

The present study was carried out to validate the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model on production of papaya in India. In this study, we used secondary data for the period from 1950-51 to 2017-18. The ARIMA (p, d, q) models were fitted for the period from 1950-51 to 2009-10 and the remaining periods i.e. 2010-2018 were used for validation of the ARIMA model. The validity of the models were tested by using standard statistical criterias (i.e., R 2 , RMSE and MAPE). Among all the ARIMA (p, d, q) models, ARIMA (3, 1, 4) was found to be best fitted model for validation and forecast the future values. The forecasted values of papaya production from 2010-11 to 2017-18 were approximately similar to original values.