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A problematica da seca no semiarido brasileiro constitui um dos fatores limitantes para o desenvolvimento economico daregiao, uma vez que a falta de agua alem de dificultar a vida de milhares de pessoas, impede que diversas atividades geradoras derenda sejam realizadas. Em face deste problema o governo federal criou o programa emergencial de distribuicao de agua do Governo Federal conhecido como “Operacao Pipa”. Dessa forma, este trabalho tem como objetivo fazer previsao de demanda por este servico de abastecimento de agua nesta regiao, considerando que tal informacao e significante no processo de tomada de decisao na hora dealocar os recursos disponiveis e de elaboracao de politicas mais efetivas. Para isso, utiliza a metodologia de Box-Jenkins no periodode Janeiro de 2003 a Agosto de 2010, disponibilizada pelo Ministerio da Integracao Nacional, por intermedio da Secretaria Nacional de Defesa Civil e pelo Comando de Operacoes Terrestre do Exercito Brasileiro. Os resultados apontaram que o modelo mais apropriado foi modelo sazonal SARIMA (2,0,1)(1,1,0)12. As previsoes sugerem que existe, de fato, um crescimento da demanda por agua na regiao. Conclui que apenas medidas eficazes de convivencia com a seca poderao reverter tamanha necessidade. Palavras-chave: Previsao de demanda, agua, semiarido, modelos Box-Jenkins, series temporais. FORECAST FOR THE SERVICE OF WATER SUPPLY IN BRAZILIAN SEMIARID: an application of Box-Jenkins models Abstract: The problem of drought in the Brazilian semiarid region is one of the limiting factors for economic development of the region, since the lack of water also hindering the lives of thousands of people, prevents various income-generating activities to be conducted. In face of this problem the federal government created the program emergency water distribution of the federal government known as “Operation Pipa”. Thus, this study aims to forecast demand for this service water supply in this region considering that such informationis significant in the process of decision making time to allocate the available resources and the development of more effective policies. For this we used the Box-Jenkins methodology for the period January 2003 to August 2010, provided by the Ministry of NationalIntegration, through the Secretary of National Defense and by the Land Operations Command of the Brazilian Army. The resultsshowed that the model was most appropriate seasonal model SARIMA (2,0,1) (1,1,0) 12. Forecasts suggest that there is indeed anincrease in demand for water in the region. Concludes that only effective measures of dealing with the drought that could reverse suchneed. Key words: Demand forecasting, water, semiarid, Box-Jenkins models, time series.

PREVISÃO PELO SERVIÇO DE FORNECIMENTO DE ÁGUA NO SEMIÁRIDO BRASILEIRO: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins