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The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of Quaternary climate fluctuations on the predictive distribution of the Richeria grandis VAHL. species in the state of Minas Gerais. We used data of the occurrence of the species, and 10 climatic variables referring to three past scenarios (Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum and Interglacial) and current period for modeling analysis. The Maxent algorithm was selected to relate the occurrence of the species with bioclimatic variables that reflect different temperature, precipitation and seasonality conditions. The models were validated using the AUC index and the influence of the variables on the distribution was evaluated through the Jackknife test. The models presented good performance, since the AUC indexes ranged from 0.81 to 0.87. The Quaternary models showed a gradual increase in suitability for Richeria grandis in the Interglacial (120 140 thousand years ago), Last Glacial Maximum (22 thousand years ago) and Holocene (6000 years ago) scenarios respectively. For the current scenario (1960-1990), there was a decrease in adequacy when compared to the Holocene period. The bioclimatic variables that best contributed to the modeling were: Precipitation of the wettest month, which seems to have the greatest useful information aggregated, followed by the variable Precipitation of the driest month, isothermality and finally the Seasonality of temperature. This tool has proved to be very useful in providing contributions to the study of ecological issues on the species distribution, as well as being an important tool for biodiversity conservation plans.

enciclopédia biosfera

MODELO PREDITIVO DO POTENCIAL DE DISTRIBUIÇÃO GEOGRÁFICA DA ESPÉCIE Richeria grandis VAHL. NO ESTADO DE MINAS GERAIS E SUA RELAÇÃO COM AS FLUTUAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS DO QUATERNÁRIO