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Resumo : Muitos paises, a partir da decada de 1990, passaram a utilizar o Regime de Metas de Inflacao (RMI) como regime de politica monetaria, inclusive o Brasil, que o adotou em 1999. Entretanto, ha inumeras criticas ao modo de funcionamento desse regime, alem da analise das consequencias de seu uso a dinâmica macroeconomica dos paises. No contexto do RMI, consideram-se os desvios do produto de seu nivel natural a causa do aumento generalizado dos precos, e, assim, utiliza-se a taxa de juros como instrumento de politica monetaria. Neste trabalho, seguindo-se uma perspectiva pos-keynesiana, que tece criticas a esse regime, inclusive ao considerar que a inflacao e um fenomeno multicausado, teve-se como objetivo investigar empiricamente quais sao as variaveis explicativas das causas da inflacao brasileira no periodo pos-RMI, especificamente, de 2003 a 2016. Assim, objetiva-se, inclusive, debater se a politica monetaria baseada nesse regime e condizente com o funcionamento de economias monetarias. Para tanto, alem da revisao bibliografica como metodo de procedimento, em que se busca apresentar as diferencas teoricas do chamado Novo Consenso Macroeconomico, que da sustentacao ao RMI, e a escola pos-keynesiana, neste trabalho utiliza-se a metodologia econometrica de Vetores Autorregressivos (VARs), que permite analisar inter-relacoes entre multiplas variaveis, de modo a se auferirem as variaveis relevantes na explicacao da dinâmica de precos no Brasil no periodo recente. Os resultados encontrados apontam que os fatores do lado da oferta da economia explicam em boa medida a dinâmica inflacionaria brasileira no periodo analisado, indicando, assim, a fragilidade em se utilizar apenas a taxa de juros como instrumento de politica monetaria. Palavras-chave : Regime de Metas de Inflacao. Pos-keynesianos. Inflacao. Inflation dynamics and monetary policy in Brazil: a post-keynesian reading using the Self-Regressive Vector (VAR) Abstract : Many countries started to use the Inflation Target Regime (RMI) as a monetary policy regime, including Brazil, which adopted it in 1999. However, there are innumerable criticisms of the way this regime operates, besides the analysis of the consequences of its use to the macroeconomic dynamics of the countries. In the context of the RMI, the deviations of the product from its natural level are taken as the cause of the generalized increase of prices, and thus, the interest rate is used as a monetary policy instrument. This work, following a post-keynesian perspective, which criticizes this regime, including considering that inflation is a multi-caused phenomenon, aims to investigate empirically what are the explanatory variables of the causes of brazilian inflation in the post-RMI period, specifically from 2003 to 2016. Thus, it is also intended to discuss whether the monetary policy based on this regime is consistent with the operation of monetary economies. For this, in addition to the bibliographic review as a procedure method, which seeks to present the theoretical differences of the so-called New Macroeconomic Consensus, which gives support to the RMI, and the post-keynesian school, this work uses the econometric methodology of Autoregressive Vectors (VAR), which allows analyzing interrelations between multiple variables, in order to obtain the relevant variables in the explanation of the price dynamics in Brazil in the recent period. The results show that the factors on the supply side of the economy largely explain the brazilian inflationary dynamics in the period analyzed, thus indicating the fragility of using only the interest rate as a monetary policy instrument. Keywords : Inflation Target Regime. Post-keynesians. Inflation.

Dinâmica da inflação e política monetária no Brasil: uma leitura pós-keynesiana com uso da metodologia de Vetores Autorregressivos (VARs)