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Land use and land cover change has been recognized to have significant environmental impacts in a watershed, such as regulation of water quality. However, the identification of potential regions that are sensitive to land change activities for the protection of water quality poses a grand challenge particularly in a large watershed. These potential regions are o en associated with critical thresholds in terms of, for example, water quality. In this study, we developed an agent-based land changemodel to investigate the relationship between land development activities and water quality in eight North Carolina counties that cover the lower High Rock Lake Watershed area. This agent-based model, which is empirically calibrated, is used to identify space-time locations of those regions at critical thresholds of water quality in this study area. Our experimental results suggest that land development as a form of system stress is of pivotal importance in a ecting water quality at sub watershed level and the state transition of water quality. The agent-based model developed in this study provides solid support for investigations on the impact of land development under alternative scenarios in a large watershed.

Agent-Based Land Change Modeling of a Large Watershed: Space-Time Locations of Critical Threshold