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This research seeks to study the effectiveness of the Environmental’s Crime Law (9.605/98) applied to crimes against flora in Amapa State. The study occurred in the period between 2000 and 2008. The methodology was divided in the following steps: a) data acquisition about violation acts against the flora (IBAMA-AP), b) analysis of civil recovery, c) analysis of the filing of criminal charges by Federal’s and State’s Public Prosecutors, and d) verification of procedures and conclusion of civil and criminal cases, using probabilities of success and failure. As a result two econometric conceptual models were developed, one civil and one criminal, both applied in the analysis of the effectiveness of the law from legal-economic scenarios. Econometric parameters such as amount of the fine, interest rate (% per month) and period of application as well as observational probabilities related to the level of success of each stage of civil and criminal events. The results of the proposed econometric models application represent fairly well the risks of effectiveness of the law, based on numbers of notifications, criminal convictions and payment of civil penalties. From this perspective, the administrative and criminal instruments showed reduced effectiveness, with few convictions, probably increased by the complexity of the legal sector in the Brazilian system. We conclude that there are significant failures on the fulfilling of administrative and judicial procedures, but that can be relatively well explained by the proposed econometric models. Keywords: Eastern Amazonia; Environmental’s Crime Law; Effectiveness; Legal-Economic Mathematic Model; Amapa State.

A Lei de Crimes Ambientais e Análise da Efetividade Jurídico-Econômica a partir de Modelos Econométricos