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There is literature that questions the veracity of the studies commissionedby the transnational tobacco companies (TTC) to measure the illicit tobaccotrade. Furthermore, there are studies that indicate that the Empty Pack Surveys(EPS) ordered by the TTCs are oversized. The novelty of this study is that, inaddition to detecting the anomalies analyzed in the EPSs, there are provincesin which cigarette sales are higher than reasonable values, something that theTTCs ignore. This study analyzed simultaneously, firstly, if the EPSsestablished in each of the 47 Spanish provinces were fulfilled. Second,anomalies observed in provinces where sales exceed expected values aremeasured. To achieve the objective of the paper, provincial data on cigarettesales, price and GDP per capita are used. These data are modeled with machinelearning techniques widely used to detect anomalies in other areas. The resultsreveal that the provinces in which sales below reasonable values are observed(as detected by the EPSs) present a clear geographical pattern. Furthermore,the values provided by the EPSs in Spain, as indicated in the previousliterature, are slightly oversized. Finally, there are regions bordering othercountries or with a high tourist influence in which the observed sales arehigher than the expected values.

tobacco induced diseases

Measuring anomalies in cigarette sales by using official data from  Spanish provinces: Are there only the anomalies detected by the Empty Pack  Surveys (EPS) used by Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTCs)?