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espanolLos sistemas financieros se consideran como uno de los factores determinantes para el crecimiento economico; estos sistemas tipicamente se reunen en dos categorias, bancarios y bursatiles. La literatura referente evidencia a factores como el credito interno al sector privado, las acciones negociadas (% del PIB), el PIB per-capita y la inflacion, pueden ser indicadores de transicion de un tipo de estado financiero a otro. Por consiguiente, el aporte principal del presente articulo es determinar la probabilidad de transicion entre estados del sistema financiero bancario a uno bursatil y viceversa, presentes en paises latinoamericanos emergentes como Mexico, Colombia, Brasil y Chile (pertenecientes a la Organizacion para la Cooperacion y el Desarrollo Economicos-OECD). Para realizar estos calculos se utiliza una metodologia Switching Markov de dos estados como herramienta de analisis para el periodo de estudio comprendido entre 2000-2016, con datos provenientes del Banco Mundial en el grupo de informacion financiera. Los resultados obtenidos reflejan como a traves del tiempo, la mayoria de los paises se mantienen en un solo estado, es decir, a pesar de las condiciones economicas internacionales no existe transicion o cambios de sistema financiero. EnglishFinancial systems are considered to be one of the determinants of economic growth; these systems typically fall into two categories, banking and stock market. The literature on factors such as domestic credit to the private sector, traded shares (% of GDP), GDP per capita and inflation can be indicators of transition from one type of financial state to another. Therefore, the main contribution of this article is to determine the probability of transition between states of the banking financial system to a stock market and vice versa, present in emerging Latin American countries such as Mexico, Colombia, Brazil and Chile (belonging to the OECD). To perform these calculations, a two-state Switching Markov methodology is used as an analysis tool for the study period 2000-2016, with data from the World Bank in the financial information group. The results obtained reflect how over time, most countries remain in a single state, ie, despite international economic conditions there is no transition or changes in the financial system.

Transición entre sistemas financieros bancarios y bursátiles. Una aproximación mediante modelo de Swithing Markov