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International audienceRecent studies have shown that repeatable travel-path terms make ahigh contribution to the overall variability in earthquake ground motions. Having mapsof such terms available for a given recording site would, theoretically, allow removal ofthis component from the aleatory variability of ground-motion models. The assessmentof such travel-path terms for a given site, however, relies on having recorded a rich setof earthquakes at that site. Given the relative youth of strong-motion networks, theassessment of such terms from observations is currently difficult for most parts ofthe world. Ground-motion simulations provide an alternative method to assess suchterms. In this article, many dozens of earthquakes, distributed in a grid, are simulatedfor the Marmara Sea region (Turkey), which borders the megacity of Istanbul and is anarea of high seismic hazard. Ground motions are simulated within a detailed 3D veloc-ity structure model using a finite-difference method at 70 recording sites in the area(200×120km2). Horizontal peak ground velocities from these simulations are re-gressed to derive a ground-motion model. Next, residuals from this ground-motionprediction equation are computed to assess repeatable source, site, and path termsand various components of ground-motion variability. These components are similarto those derived from real strong-motion data, thereby lending support to those esti-mates as well as showing the worth of simulations for this type of exercis

Assessing Components of Ground‐Motion Variability from Simulations for the Marmara Sea Region (Turkey)