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The possibility of an occurrence of adverse selection in the agricultural insurance market in Brazil is evaluated. Adverse selection occurs when insurances are primarily contracted by agents, at high risks. The hypothesis is that the phenomenon may be triggered by increase in value compensated in accidents derived from extreme climate changes that would cause increase in the premiums demanded by the insurance companies. The most expensive premiums cause portfolios to be primarily composed of high-risk insurance, increasing the occurrence of compensation for losses. Linear regression analyses were performed between losses, which occurred in one year, and contracts for the following year, between 2003 and 2013 for six Brazilian states: Mato Grosso do Sul (MS); Minas Gerais (MG); Parana (PR); Santa Catarina (SC); Rio Grande do Sul (RS); and Sao Paulo (SP). The significance of data linear regressions was estimated by randomized statistical tests. The occurrence of adverse selection between 2003 and 2013 could be inferred in the case of the states of MS, RS and SP. Results contribute towards the characterization and identification of the adverse selection phenomenon that causes high loss rates in the Brazilian agricultural insurance market.

MUDANÇA DO CLIMA E SEUS IMPACTOS NO SEGURO AGRÍCOLA NO BRASIL