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Capital adequacy ratio (CAR)is used as one of the most important indicator for the risk measurement of the banks. In addition, according to the Banking Regulation Law No:5411 and related Bylaws, CAR under %8 is the only financial reason to hold the control of the banks by Banking Regulator and Supervisory Agency (BRSA). Because of that; in order to have an efficient management, it is unavoidable for the banks to estimate their CAR for the financial planning and developing of the investment strategies considering the risk capacity. Moreover for the regulatory body, it is essential to estimate banks CAR for more effective control and directing the system. In this study, for 14Investment and Development Banks which is one of the local sub bank classes defined by BRSA (Banking Regulatory and Supervisory Agency) and also one of the most important component of the banking sector, by using the 2011 January2014 September CAR values, the Markov Chains are constructed. After then the transition matrix are obtained, and next period estimations are added to analysis.As a result of the analysis, it was estimated that the CAR for the development and Investment Banks in Turkey will decrease and reach the level around the of the Turkish Banking Sectors today value.

TÜRKİYEDEKİ KALKINMA BANKALARININ SERMAYE YETERLİLİK RASYOLARININ MARKOV ZİNCİRLERİ YÖNTEMİ İLE TAHMİN EDİLMESİ