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Background: Russian scientists have proposed several approaches to evaluation of regional energy security: analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy sets and indicative analysis. The first two methods are focused on solving problems in certain regions, their special features and characteristics, which complicates their adaptation. The third method has been widely applied because of its simplicity and universal acceptance. However, these properties lead in some cases to a significant distortion of results, as they do not account for nuclear energy, renewable energy, and specific functioning conditions of regional power systems. The risk theory for assessing the energy security of the state was proposed by the IEA. However, this technique is not applicable to the assessment of the situation in the regions of Russia, because it focuses on the macroeconomic indicators at the state level, and the list of threats and characteristics of energy security in the regional context are quite different. The purpose of the study is to increase the validity of evaluation results at the regional level, including the impact of threats to energy security on the electric power system in the region, taking into account the peculiarities of its functioning. Materials and methods: Investigations were carried out on the basis of the analysis theory and risk management of complex technical systems and theory of reliability. These methods have been applied to solving such problem for the first time. Results: We have estimated the risks of reducing energy security in some regions of the IDGC of Centre and analysed the effect of threats to energy security on the electricity systems of these regions taking into account region-specific parameters. We have also identified the main directions of the measures aimed at limiting the risk of reducing energy security in these regions. «Вестник ИГЭУ» Вып. 5 2017 г. © ФГБОУВО «Ивановский государственный энергетический университет имени В. И. Ленина» 20 Conclusions: The estimates we have made are more accurate as they account for the factors causing distortions in the most common method. The proposed method allows us to identify specific areas of activities to enhance regional energy security, accounting for the specific conditions of regional power systems functioning, which the existing methods are unable to do.

A study of the impact of threats to energy security on the electric power system of a region according to the risk analysis theory